午夜剧场

The objective of my research is to provide the macroeconomic models necessary for analyzing monetary and fiscal policy. In particular, my research focuses on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which central banks and international organizations around the world have been actively developing and using in recent years.

When policy authorities formulate new policies or change existing ones, they cannot simply "try it and see" without knowing the effects. It is not possible to conduct experiments using the real economy. Therefore, simulations are conducted using macroeconomic models, which are systems of simultaneous equations that abstract the real economy. Macroeconomic models for policy analysis must be simple enough to help understand the complex structure of the real economy, yet capable of sufficiently explaining actual economic events. In addition, they need to explicitly incorporate the role of economic agents' expectations, which is crucial for considering the ripple effects of policies. DSGE models have been developed to meet these needs. At 午夜剧场, I hope to advance my research to contribute to the further development of DSGE models, focusing on aspects such as imperfections in financial markets and the realistic formation of expectations by economic agents.

My encounter with macroeconomic models dates back to my student days. When I was studying Keynesian-type macro-econometric models at 午夜剧场, I found them intuitively interesting. For example, what kind of effect would a one-trillion-yen increase in fiscal spending have? It was fascinating to be able to clarify the ripple mechanism and its quantitative effects. My friends around me shied away from it, saying it was too difficult, but I was very interested in its ability to explain a complex economy in a simple way. Unusually, I was the only one in my seminar, and I felt there was a certain scarcity value in doing what others didn't want to do. When it came time for job hunting, I had a desire to continue my research in graduate school, but I chose to find a job, thinking that seeing the actual policy-making field would definitely be useful.

When I first encountered DSGE models at my previous job, I honestly thought, "There's no way such a rigidly theoretical model can be used for real-world policy analysis." At that time, a senior colleague at work told me the words of statistician George Box: "All models are wrong, but some are useful." This means that while no perfect model exists, some can be useful to society if they are used while understanding their limitations. In fact, DSGE models are now frequently used as a benchmark for policy discussions around the world.

I sometimes hear that Japanese university students don't study much, but from what I see of the students taking my classes and seminars, I have the impression that 午夜剧场 students study very hard. I can see that the seminar students spend a considerable amount of time preparing for their presentations, and they voluntarily hold math study groups to understand graduate-level macroeconomics. Also, it's not uncommon for them to stop me between classrooms to ask questions. Contrary to the general notion that they don't study, I am very impressed. Being able to learn together with such enthusiastic students gives me a sense of fulfillment.

I want students to value their seminars. A university seminar is likely the only place in most people's lives where people interested in the same academic theme can gather. It is a place where you can engage in repeated discussions and sharpen each other's skills. I hope that students at 午夜剧场 will use their seminars as such a meaningful time.

(Interview conducted on July 15, 2010)