午夜剧场

In recent years, the word "sontaku" (surmising or acting on the unspoken wishes of others) has been frequently used in reports and commentaries on Japanese politics. In the Moritomo and Kake Gakuen scandals, which became major issues under the long-term Abe administration, the "sontaku" of bureaucrats toward Prime Minister Abe and others was repeatedly pointed out, and the term was selected as the winner of the 2017 Buzzword Award.

On the other hand, in the field of political science, "sontaku" has long been discussed as "anticipated reaction" and is considered one of the most important concepts in elucidating the power dynamics that political science emphasizes. Usually, regarding the influence relationship between A and B, attention is focused on A directly exercising power over B to change B's behavior. However, B surmising A's intentions and acting accordingly is also a significant exercise of influence over B. While the former is an explicit influence of A on B, the latter is called implicit influence.

Regarding the Japanese Diet, which has been the subject of my analysis, there has been a tendency to focus on how much the Diet prevents the passage of cabinet-submitted bills (Kakuho)—planned and drafted by bureaucrats of various ministries—through amendments or rejections. The frequency of such actions has been directly linked to the evaluation of the Diet. However, to comprehensively understand the influence of the Diet, it is essential to examine how bureaucrats prepare cabinet bills by surmising the policy preferences of the Diet (especially the majority in both houses).

However, just as it was difficult for others to prove what kind of "sontaku" bureaucrats performed in the Moritomo and Kake Gakuen scandals, observing implicit influence based on "sontaku" is considered a difficult methodological challenge. Furthermore, even if one could prove someone's "sontaku," actual political phenomena are not the result of unilateral "sontaku" by a single actor, but occur as a consequence of "sontaku" by various actors and the resulting interactions. Certainly, the Japanese Prime Minister, as the chief executive overseeing the administrative branch, is a target of "sontaku" by bureaucrats and others, but the Prime Minister also manages the administration while surmising the intentions of the ruling and opposition parties, bureaucrats, the media, and voters.

In this way, understanding complex political phenomena based on the "sontaku" of various actors involves various difficulties. However, this is precisely the true charm of empirical political science research and serves as an important clue for considering the nature of human society.