午夜剧场

In October 2018, China's Alibaba Group launched a medical coverage service for its members, and in just one year, the number of subscribers surpassed 100 million. This is a phenomenal rate of growth. The most significant feature is that, unlike general insurance, no premium contribution is required at the time of enrollment; instead, after a claim occurs, the total amount of the benefit payment and administrative fees is "split" among the subscribers. Interestingly, the basic form of this system existed long before Yukichi Fukuzawa introduced insurance to Japan, and in Japan, it was known as Tanomoshiko or Mujin. In a sense, it can be said that an ancient system of mutual aid has been recreated within modern Social Networking Services (SNS).

To begin with, the function of insurance has its roots in "risk pooling." For example, let's assume that two people, A and B, each have a 0.2 probability of encountering an accident resulting in a loss of 5 million yen (assuming the accidents occur independently). Now, let's say the two make an agreement that "when a loss occurs, the two will split it in half" (this is called "risk pooling"). When we are in the position of A (or B), most people would want to implement this agreement. In my field of expertise, people who make such a choice are called "risk-averse." Roughly speaking, through "risk pooling," the probability that both will encounter an accident and each have to bear 5 million yen becomes 0.04 (0.2 x 0.2), so the probability of extreme outcomes (0 yen or 5 million yen in loss) decreases, creating a stable situation. "Risk-averse" people prefer this kind of situation.

If you think about it, no matter how much technology advances, the essence of human beings may not have changed since ancient times. For instance, if salaries do not change much, many people would likely prefer a more stable life. They are "risk-averse." There are many commentaries suggesting that Alibaba's new service is a threat to existing insurance. However, if we unravel it from the function of insurance, it is merely a "throwback" to its origins, and its premise lies in our universal human nature. By grasping this scientifically, we can carefully consider the essence of things that appear new at first glance. The joy of "academic study" lies in this point.